Commercial control and priorities / Lesson P03

Is 30% growth good? Evaluate growth rate, costs, capacity and cash

Thirty per cent growth can be good, but only once you've checked contribution, cash timing, delivery capacity and customer outcomes, not just revenue. The headline sounds impressive, but what did it cost? If you doubled the workload, paid for expensive contractors and collected cash late, the number misses the point.

By the end, you should be able to

  • Calculate growth with a consistent comparison
  • Separate revenue growth from contribution and cash
  • Set expansion conditions the team can actually deliver

Thirty per cent of what?

The first question sounds basic. It matters.

Is that revenue, customer count, orders, recurring contracts or cash collected? Are you comparing a full year with a full year? Did an acquisition or price increase change the number? Was the earlier period unusually weak?

A percentage is a summary. You still need to know what happened underneath it.

Check the work behind the increase

Growth rate equals the change divided by the starting amount. Revenue rising from $100,000 to $130,000 is 30% growth. Revenue rising from $1,000 to $1,300 is also 30%. The capacity, risk and commercial significance may be completely different.

For a business with no revenue in the starting period, a percentage growth calculation is not meaningful. Report the actual change instead.

A startup's appropriate pace depends on its model and evidence. A repeatable digital subscription and a specialist service with limited delivery hours do not have the same operating constraints. A statistical definition of a high-growth enterprise is also not a personal target. One OECD-Eurostat convention uses average annualised growth above 20% over three years and at least ten employees at the starting point. Other measures and statistical series differ.

An illustrative record month

Imagine a business with monthly revenue of $100,000 and direct delivery costs of $60,000. It has $40,000 left before overhead and other expenses.

Next month, revenue reaches $130,000. Direct costs reach $91,000 because the additional work uses expensive contractors and needs rework. The amount left before overhead is $39,000.

Revenue rose 30%. Direct costs rose more quickly. Contribution fell by $1,000, before considering any added overhead. This does not prove expansion was wrong. It means the owner needs an explanation before calling it a better month.

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